Why the prospect of a hung parliament is terrifying UK economists
There have been comparisons made in recent times between New Labour in the run up to the 1997 general election and the rejuvenated Conservative Party today. There are certainly parallels.
Back in '97 people the public was totally fed up with John Major's Tory administration and it's "sleaze" and there was widespread enthusiasm for Tony Blair. There are many reasons today why people are fed up with Gordon Brown but the difference this time is that people still seem very unsure about David Cameron.
If the polls are to be believed then Britain could be heading for a hung parliament after the general election in the spring. This possibility is terrifying UK economists...
Government borrowing this year is set to come in at the thick end of ã180bn. It's a figure that is giving nightmares to both political parties as well as to economists across the board.
There is widespread consensus that the deficit needs to be tackled as soon after the election as possible. Unless a credible plan to do this is advanced the UK could be in danger of losing its AAA credit rating.
Any downgrading of this would make it much more expensive for the UK government to borrow money in the future.
Both Labour and the Tories are talking a good game over tackling the debt mountain but so far neither party seems to have outlined a credible plan.
This is making economists and business leaders both within and outside Britain very nervous. Memories of a bailout by the International Monetary Fund back in the 1970s remain painful.
Now the prospect of a hung parliament after the forthcoming election is adding fuel to the fire. Markets rely heavily on confidence and any uncertainty following the poll is sure to have a negative impact.
JP Morgan's head of economic research Malcolm Barr said the UK's fiscal position looks "significantly worse" now than in the 1970s, with borrowing soaring to 12.7% of GDP compared with just 7% more than 30 years ago.
However, Barr is at least optimistic that there is genuine political will this time around to tackle the problem.
He said: "All three major parties have explicitly recognised the need for fiscal consolidation and to limit spending and tax commitments as a result. Back in the 1970s, the need to make such choices was recognised later, and faced more serious public resistance."
That may be so, but the fragile UK economy is sure to face many more months of uncertainty.


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