Gamblers reckon Tories are odds on for Commons majority
On one of my previous posts a commentator offered me a ã50 bet that Jane Kennedy would keep her Wavertree seat in a General Election.
I haven't taken up the bet and won't be (I'm not a betting man, impartiality would not allow it, and it is likely to be a close run contest).
Any how, the latest information from betting exchange Betfair, says that the Labour Party now has just an 11% chance (odds 8-1) of securing an overall majority at the next election.
The latest ComRes poll, released over the weekend, puts Labour 15 points behind.
The Conservatives chances have risen five points in the same time to 62% (odds 8-13).
Betfair says a similar move has been seen in the market on who will win the most seats. David Cameron's party has been well ahead in that market for some time and are now given a 78% chance (odds 2-7) of securing the most seats.
The change on Betfair over the weekend is the biggest seen in the market since the end of November, a time when Gordon Brown was enjoying favourable ratings on his handling of the economic crisis.
Betfair spokesman Michael Robb said: "Punters now emphatically put the ball in David Cameron's court with the Tories favoured in all markets looking at the next general election.
"The government now looks in real trouble and customers are throwing their money on it being goodbye Gordon come 2010."
Here are some of the odds Betfair are quoting:
Next General Election Overall Majority - Betfair bet: 8-13 Conservatives, 5-2 No Overall Majority, 8-1 Labour, 139-1 Any Other Party
Next General Election Most Seats - Betfair bet: 2-7 Conservatives, 100-30 Labour, 94-1 Liberal Democrats
Next General Election Date - Betfair bet: 4-11 January 2010 Or Later, 6-1 January to June 2009, July to December 2009
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Dale Street Associates
David Bartlett
City editor of the Post and Echo covering politics, regeneration, and urban affairs.
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David, having looked at the forecasts, you should have taken up the ã50 bet on Jane Kennedy retaining her seat. She's on shaky ground as it is and her previous Labour support is melting away as the recession kicks in. As they say, "Labour - things can only get worse".