General election leaders' debates: Round Two, the score draw

By David Bartlett on Apr 23, 10 08:33 AM in

Margin of error are not words your likely to hear many people talking about today.

But if we're honest the margin of error in polling means that last night's TV debate was essentially a score draw between the three leaders, all on somewhere near 30 per cent, give or take a little.

Nick Clegg had to prove that last week's performance was not a flash in the pan. And he did that persuasively and well.

David Cameron needed to up his game. And he was better than last Thursday, but failed to grab the initiative. We were told that the TV debates would allow Cameron to shine, but in truth he's seemed under par on both nights and has been unable to effectively tap into the minds of those dissatisfied with politics and/or tired of 13 years of Labour.

Brown was more solid than the first debate, but expectations were low of him to start with. As an unpopular Prime Minister he always had the least to lose from these debates. It's hard to see a scenario where he wins a debate as he was always going to be on the defensive after 13 years in power.

Take both debates together and Clegg still remains the big winner. Last week catapulted his party to a height many thought was not possible. Despite a concerted effort by national press to discredit him ahead of the contest he came out strong and delivered another convincing performance.

His closing statement was extremely effective and natural, while the other two's were too laboured.

Verdict: Cameron needs to do pull of something really special next week if he wants to avoid a hung parliament.

Click HERE to read a piece I wrote for today's papers.

9 Comments

Robin Brown said:

It's been interesting to see the effect of the debates on polls, unmediated by the press. I can't bear to watch them myself, but it's interesting to see how the various papers score the debate. I expect it'll be knives out for Clegg again this morning.

JT said:

There is a big gap between the Sun poll which shows Nick Clegg second and every other poll that has him as the winner.

And there is one simple reason why.

The Sun/Yougov pollsters (deliberately?)phoned people during Nick Clegg's closing speech.

Dave, you are right in saying Nick Clegg delivered a very good closing speech, clearly the fact that many of the people being polled didn't get to hear it because they were on the phone will have affected the result.

Rick said:

Sky is becoming more like Fox News every day.I was watching Sky's coverage after it ended and Kay Burley just kept bleating "your man lost" to Labour and Lib Dem politicians and was fawning all over the Tories. The best bit was a row between between Ashdown and Miliband over Trident. Ashdown destroyed Miliband while Liam Fox looked on helplessly.

Non pareil said:

"Ashdown destroyed Miliband " Stop being so partisan.

You clearly were not watching properly. What happened was Ashdown refused to give an answer and refused to allow Milliband to speak. Fox was stood wondering why on earth Ashdown wouldn't let Milliband answer the opinion he had been asked for.

And Ashdown refused to give a proper answer on Trident.

nino said:

Alguns filhos da Rainha são mal educados!, e envergonham o mundo!!!, com piadas impróprias!, jovems que nasceram ontem precisam de um puxão nas orelhas para respeitar os mais velhos!!!, e procurar ler a Biblia ao invés de ler o lixo da internet!,

Some children are poorly educated Queen!, And shame the world! With inappropriate jokes!, Young people who were born yesterday need a poke in the ears to respect their elders!, And seek to read the Bible instead of reading garbage on the web!,

Grace said:

I'd just like to know how on earth I - and everyone else for that matter - can find out about what our LOCAL election candidates stand for. Can anyone shed light on this for me?

It seems to me that with all the focus and excitement centering on the general election lately, people have almost entirely forgotten about our local representatives which is surely just as important. Living in Wavertree constituency, church ward to be specific, I have had around 25 letters from Lib Dem Colin Eldridge and a good handful from Labours Luciana Berger. Yes, I am well informed there! But today I received my postal ballot for the local race and don't recognise a single name. What to do that to do... Guess? Is that democracy in action?

Advice welcome

Dear Grace

As the elected member for Kensington and Fairfield ward (within Liverpool Wavertree) seeking re-election, I have made the decision to issue a leaflet concerning the local elections which you can see reproduced on my website today courtesy of an unknown resident who has taken the time to upload it to a website for the collection of all leaflets. Thanks to them, whoever they are, for facilitating something that I was not technologically able to do myself.

I am not sure whether other candidates or sitting councillors in other wards have been able to issue their own leaflets. It seems to me that the local elections have more generally taken a back seat to the national ones and like you I regret that.

But I guess that local candidates would say that they understand why this is so, and that the local, regional and national media are complicit in this, which makes it understandable (although difficult).

Today, with the arrival of the postal votes for both elections, I have also received no fewer than 5 pieces of election material concerning candidates in the General Election (I live in Wavertree ward in Liverpool Wavertree) and to date I have received nothing local other than a short leaflet from my old friend and sparring partner Elizabeth Pascoe, standing this year for the Green Party.

Thoughts on a postcard (complete with local scenes please) as to what is right to focus on and what is not

mrsgilliansmith said:

Well, actually, there's been quite a lot of leaflets in Kensington featuring both Colin Eldridge and Frank Doran. I am quite clear about all Frank's good works over the years and his vision for the future. Good luck to him.

mrsgilliansmith's mother said:

Come in now Gerard, it is way past your bed time.

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David Bartlett

David Bartlett

City editor of the Post and Echo covering politics, regeneration, and urban affairs.
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