Liverpool local election 2011, Liberal Democrats heading for meltdown?
I can't believe that it almost a year since the 2010 election.
Twelve months ago Labour were poised to take power locally, and nationally and the Conservatives seemed to be heading for power.
March 2011 and we all know how it turned out. Cleggmania became Cleggphobia, and the Liberal Democrats brand is now more toxic than it has ever arguably been.
I've covered numerous elections and normally by this time of the year politicos are starting to get geared up for the big day. But this year seems very muted.
Locally there is no question mark over who will control the council. The only topic of debate is how badly will the Lib-Dems get hammered.
A well placed Lib-Dem suggested to me they might lost between six and eight seats in Liverpool.
Even Lib-Dem strongholds like Allerton and Hunts Cross could turn red, they said.
"Labour are on their third leaflet already, we haven't done anything. They wouldn't waste any time in there unless they thought they could cause an upset," added the Lib-Dem.
Then there is the referendum on voting reform. It is hard to think of another topic that has so successfully failed to excite the public consciousness. Maybe people are too worried about their jobs and the economy to care? Or maybe the electorate really don't care?
Meltdown in May for the Lib-Dems? It's certainly looking like a likely possibility.
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David Bartlett
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erm.. "Twelve months ago Labour were poised to take power nationally and the Conservatives seemed to be heading for power."?
Hi Oddjones thanks for pointing that out, I've changed it now.
This "well-placed Lib Dem" is completely delusional. There is mot the remotest chance the Lib Dems will lose eight seats in Liverpool. They will lose many more. Think about it. They lost nine seats last year - before they became completely toxic. Labour isn't working that hard in those seats this year. Why would they? The canvass rerurns have been embarrassingly good. Look instead to Labour wins in Mossley Hill, and even in Childwall. You think I exaggerate? Not from what I hear, I don't.
Keep a close eye on Mossley Hill ward on election night. Labour doing all kinds of under the radar campaigning here... they've got over 2000 promises of support.
Dont get carried away with potential Labour gains- youre forgetting the most important factor , Turnout- its not likely to be increased by the referendum so if it returns to 2008 levels- very possible then the libdems will deffo hold some seats
I hear T. Morrison is the agent again this year.
Labour's success is therefore a full-gone conclusion, surely?
Dear Back to the 80's
Are you suggessting that even on a 2008 turnout the LD will not lose considerable support?
They won seats in 08 (Knotty Ash, County, Picton) that the will lose by many hundereds this time
These elections are for seats last contested in 2007. As things stand, LibDems are defending 15 of them. The following are pretty certain to fall to Labour: Anfield, County, Knotty Ash, Old Swan & Picton (5). Thereafter, Allerton & West Derby should go Labour too (2). That leaves Childwall, Greenbank & Mossley Hill (3) as the ones to watch. If any of these are retained, LibDems will be relieved. If all three fall to Labour, as they could, we'd have real meltdown. Then we have the three-way St Michael's, currently Green; and Tuebrook, currently Liberal. The former could go Labour; don't know about the latter. That would leave the LibDems locked into their Tory heartlands of Woolton, Cressington, Church & Lord Storey's Wavertree.
Are you sure Cressington is a LibDem/Tory "heartland"? Lets see on election night...
Labour were out in force in Cressington last night. I saw councillors from Speke and Belle Vale knocking on doors with the labour candidate.
Some big name Lib Dems are for the high jump. I've spoken to a well placed Lib Dem as well, and there is a book running on how soon Turner's tears make an appearance.
Current favourite is 10.05pm