Lisbon Trick of Treaties: What have we learnt about David Cameron?

By David Higgerson on Nov 4, 09 09:50 AM

Shock of shocks, the Lisbon Treaty is signed, sealed and delivered from a small country in Eastern Europe and off of a sudden everyone is talking about the Conservative Party being in disarray.

Yes, David Cameron made a "cast iron" promise (his words, not mine) to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty back in 2007.

But things change, times change, and for the Tories to have pushed on with a referendum if/when they are elected on something they realistically couldn't change would have been daft, wouldn't it?

So while having to change tack on the Lisbon Treaty shouldn't be a bad thing for the Tories, many of the issues around the ways the Tories have handled Europe should be cause for concern:

1. Why make a cast-iron guarantee in 2007, just two years after the last general election. A lot can happen in three years, and for David Cameron to ignore the evident determination of a Labour government and other European leaders to push through the treaty suggests a lack of political nouse. At best, he's been careless with his wording. At worst, he liked the soundbite at the time and hoped people would forget. Either way, it begs questions about how trustworthy he is.

2. Cameron has clearly been out witted by a very clunky European organisation, which is well known for struggling to agree on anything. That David Cameron, widely seen as the next UK prime minister, was reduced to hoping that a Czech president would risk impeachment by blocking the treaty, suggests he doesn't have much clout in the European arena.

3. It's been obvious this was going to happen for months, yet the Tories have been flat-footed all along. Remember his interview on Andrew Marr at his party conference where he dodged the question? Why are we still waiting now to find out what the Tories would do? Surely last month would have been the time to say that there's no point in having a referendum and set out what would happen next? Cameron has displayed a lack of vision.

4. Someone's prodded the Tory dinosaurs into life. They still want a referendum, just so Cameron has the mandate to go back to Europe and start fighting for powers back. Cameron's not stupid (even though he seems to think George Osborne is a good choice for winning over voters) and knows that this is a pointless exercise. But by awakening the Tory dinosaurs like this, he does risk a divided party. Many of these old hands, it seems, have simply tolerated Cameron up until now.

5. Cameron knows a referendum for mandate would be pointless. But why? Surely, if he's to be able to fight for our interests overseas, he should be able to convince 12 other EU countries (the number he needs to push forward a change to the treaty) that they would benefit from getting some sovereign powers back? But since removing the Tories from the EPP centre-right grouping in the European Parliament, he's been forced to pal up with fringe parties in Eastern Europe despite them having seedy policies on issues such as homophobia. In a nutshell, he's moved from a position of sitting in the same grouping as the leaders of France and Germany, to sitting with minority groups. That's why a referendum is pointless.

All in all, it's a bad day for David Cameron - but not because he can't have a referendum. Scratch beneath the surface of this issue and you have a party leader craving power who seems incapable of planning for the long-term.