What if the political earthquake was repeated in Merseyside?
Ministers and backbenchers who have seen their party slump to unthinkable depths of unpopularity believe recovery is impossible under a prime minister palpably struggling.
They think the public has made up its mind that Mr Brown is not up to the job and nothing - not another relaunch, not a Cabinet reshuffle - can change that.
Nothing illustrates that more starkly than losing a by-election in the east end of Glasgow - the last place, or so MPs thought, that voters would desert them.
This is not just another bad poll, but real votes stacked against Labour. And if Scottish Mr Brown cannot win in working-class Scotland, where can he win?
To judge the scale of Thursday's political earthquake, look at what it would mean if replicated across another Labour heartland - Merseyside. A 22.5% swing would leave just five Labour MPs standing. Even Louise Ellman (Riverside) and Shaun Woodward (St Helens South) would be looking for work.
Of course, a similar result is unlikely at a general election, but can Labour MPs take that chance? Political parties do die - as political history abroad proves.
Mr Brown could still save himself if a September relaunch - with new faces and new help for those hit by the economic whirlwind - could inject a fresh, exciting style into the dour, plodding Scotsman.
But the evidence suggests that is beyond a 57-year-old who hates personality politics. Mr Brown's solution is to work harder - not to come out fighting.
That leaves the question of how this political assassin-ation will be carried out. There will be no stalking horse, nor the collecting of the necessary 71 signatures to force a contest. The most likely scenario is a delegation of Cabinet "greybeards" to tell Mr Brown his time is up - perhaps coupled with a threat of mass resignation if he refuses to go. I believe that is now more likely than not.
When, in October 1990, the Conservatives lost the Eastbourne by-election to the Liberal Democrats on a 20% swing, it still seemed unthinkable that Margaret Thatcher would be deposed.
Weeks later, the Iron Lady was gone - proof of the ruthlessness that MPs find within them when the alternative is a general election wipeout.
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Rob Merrick - Rob is the political correspondent for the Liverpool Daily Post, based in Westminster
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